A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has has something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
